Day 8 - COA 4 (The SpaceX Plan)
Okay, we’ve danced around various alternatives, now it’s time to look at the SpaceX proposed plan. We're actually going to look at a couple variants.
COA 4: Two ships proceed in the first launch window, with a variety of cargo. Two to four ships proceed in the second launch window, including one or two with 12 crew. Frankly, four ships in the second window seems like a lot, and since SpaceX is identifying two crewed and two cargo, we can just as easily examine that as one crewed and one cargo. It also seems unlikely SpaceX would miss a launch window just because all four ships weren't ready.
For the first two ships, an obvious question is whether one should be Nostromo. Let’s assume “no.” We’ve established some worries about autonomous mining, and having the ISRU plant sitting on Mars for two years just means two less years for development and checkout. The other question is whether one of the first ships should have life support. Although SpaceX has initially indicated these will be cargo ships, let’s assume one ship is actually a developmental MCCS, so life support "yes." From COA 1, we recall there are some good opportunities to check out the long-term reliability of our chosen life support components. For the other ship, let’s assume it’s the first purpose-built MFR.
The second two ships then consist of Nostromo and Heart of Gold. Since this COA assumes we already have a MCCS on Mars from the first two ships, Nostromo could reasonably be built on an MFR hull. This is good, because we now have a reason to look at both alternatives. Heart of Gold, naturally, is a MCCS.
We’ll need names for the first two ships—calling them “first ship,” “second ship,” “third ship,” etc. is going to get confusing. These are just placeholders anyway, so for now, let’s borrow from Star Trek, and call the “mostly cargo” MCCS “Constellation.” (I know, that one didn’t end so well, either, but Constitution is still commissioned in the US Navy, and they will always have an Enterprise. Plus, think about what Constellation is famous for…her last mission was stopping a planet-killing Doomsday Machine! The other obvious possibility is Mayflower; let’s save that for the first ship bringing a lot of people.) MCCS-1 Constellation.
For the freighter, we need something recognizable, that isn’t recognizable for all the wrong reasons. Famous freighter names we’ll eliminate include Kobyashi Maru (too negative), Exxon Valdez (which should be a tanker, anyway), Millennium Falcon (a little too pop-famous), and Edmund Fitzgerald (way too negative).
It seems many freighters become well-known for all the wrong reasons. Freighters known for the right reasons include science fiction’s Finity’s End, Le Cygne, Dublin Again, and Gloriana, all from C.J. Cherry’s Alliance-Union universe. Of the group, Finity’s End has the best pedigree and a nice ring to it, so let’s go with that one.
This COA has a lot going for it. Even with only four total ships, we have 600 tons of cargo, including the ISRU plant. The crew doesn’t need to live above the ISRU plant. There’s another ship available with life support, and it will have spent two years on Mars before our crew departs Earth, so we’ll have gained a lot of knowledge about what works and what doesn’t. At this point, the idea that we don’t have propellant for the return trip seems much less worrisome. If everything we’ve planned with regard to water mining turns out to be completely wrong, we have a reasonable amount of time to come up with solutions. And backed by the SpaceX plan that everything is now based on BFR architecture, there’s a plausible plan for “resupply until we get it right.” Worst case, the crew might be stranded on Mars, but they’ll be stranded with plenty of supplies and resupply to keep them going until we solve the problem.
If SpaceX is able to send four ships in the second window, things get even better. We then have 900 tons of cargo and two (possibly three) ships with life support. This plan obviously also allows for three ships in the second window--if Constellation really does go as a MCCS, then it doesn't even matter which of the four can't make the second-window trip. I'm reminded that early exploration expeditions rarely went with a single vessel. (Think, "Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria.")
For the follow-on discussions, we'll go with two ships in the second window simply because that's more conservative. If three or four go, then we have additional resources beyond the base plan.